Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981c…a24f other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$32
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$45
sports 23% −$25
politics 9% −$4
culture 6% −$7
economics 6% −$4
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$9
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage139d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $870 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $553 −$4 -1%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $355 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $551 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $239 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $299 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $324 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $441 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $95 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $380 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $448 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $465 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $365 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $283 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $417 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 3m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 3h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 6h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 10h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 12h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 17h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 26h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 27h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 32h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 33h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 35h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 37h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 38h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 40h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 41h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 42h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 45h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $27 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $26 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.36 · official $51.36 (match) · 1475 history records