Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981d…da4c crypto 545 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$195 (-1%) realized −$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%354W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$26
14 days−$95
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$571
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -1.5% -10.9% 62% 61% -10.9%
≤30d 545 -1.1% -10.5% 65% 64% -13.0%
≤90d 545 -1.1% -10.5% 65% 64% -13.0%
all 545 -1.1% -10.5% 65% 64% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 64% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 27% -21.3%
15% -26.9% 7% -28.9%
20% -34.0% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses354 / 191
Open positions0
Markets (closed)545 / 545
History coverage23d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 545 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $238 −$156 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $164 +$95 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $93 +$79 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $66 −$41 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $92 +$42 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $67 −$43 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $46 +$17 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$5 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$6 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $35 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1136 history records