Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x981f…b63f sports 608 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-4%) realized −$367 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%259W / 345L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$855
7 days−$397
14 days−$1,101
30 days−$516
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$12
other 17% −$285
crypto 14% −$127
world 1% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 -30.3% -37.0% 24% 22% -27.0%
≤30d 287 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 35% -18.9%
≤90d 604 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 41% -15.1%
all 604 -8.2% -17.0% 43% 41% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 41% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 39% -23.2%
15% -32.2% 37% -30.6%
20% -38.8% 32% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$367
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses259 / 345
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions4
Markets (closed)604 / 608
History coverage46d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 56¢ 80¢ $48 $68 +$20 (+42%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-21%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $32 −$17 -52%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 $0 -3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$6 +89%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$10 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 −$3 -67%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $36 +$15 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$4 -38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 9m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 10m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 25m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 25m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $15 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $14 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $15 3h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $16 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $17 8h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 9¢ $3 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 18h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $16 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 20h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $13 20h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 52¢ $7 21h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $6 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.29 · official $81.29 (match) · 1436 history records