Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x982a…6851
tech · 209 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$10,252 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10,694 · open −$442
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$9,067
Realized+$10,694
Unrealized−$442
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses104 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions42
Markets (closed)169 / 209
Avg bet$402
Trades / day880.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 42 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,503
7 days+$10,694
14 days+$10,694
30 days+$10,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Yes 43¢ 67¢ $866 $1,347 +$481 (+56%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Yes 90¢ 96¢ $664 $705 +$41 (+6%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $345? Yes 70¢ 94¢ $491 $658 +$167 (+34%)
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Yes 14¢ 64¢ $141 $644 +$502 (+356%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $200? Yes 56¢ 90¢ $375 $603 +$228 (+61%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $4.50? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $302 $495 +$193 (+64%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? No 79¢ 48¢ $791 $475 −$316 (-40%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? Yes 39¢ 80¢ $192 $391 +$199 (+103%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? No 74¢ 33¢ $752 $334 −$419 (-56%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? Down 30¢ 32¢ $297 $313 +$15 (+5%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Down 32¢ 28¢ $314 $282 −$32 (-10%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $197 $267 +$71 (+36%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $225? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $247 $254 +$7 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Yes 49¢ 57¢ $186 $218 +$32 (+17%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $196 $206 +$11 (+5%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $400? Yes 25¢ 52¢ $87 $183 +$96 (+110%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $205? No 46¢ 50¢ $142 $152 +$10 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $195? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $140 $151 +$11 (+8%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? No 22¢ 18¢ $168 $133 −$35 (-21%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 12? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $102 $130 +$28 (+27%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? No 36¢ 42¢ $108 $128 +$20 (+18%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $210? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $90 $123 +$32 (+36%)
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $5.00? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $227 $105 −$122 (-54%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $370? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $93 $98 +$5 (+5%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $410? No 49¢ 73¢ $63 $95 +$31 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +40%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $736 +$242 +33%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $443 −$152 -34%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $338 −$223 -66%
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 11? Jun 11 $46 −$36 -78%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$192 +95%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $282 +$141 +50%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,124 −$99 -9%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $883 +$247 +28%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 11? Jun 11 $472 −$383 -81%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $609 −$163 -27%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $375 −$330 -88%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$231 +201%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 11? Jun 11 $465 +$115 +25%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $610 +$120 +20%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $121 −$90 -74%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $502 +$125 +25%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 11? Jun 11 $802 −$216 -27%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $421 −$233 -55%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$418 +932%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $349 −$234 -67%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 on June 11? Jun 11 $115 +$285 +249%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $501 +$185 +37%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $520 +$191 +37%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$68 -87%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 11? Jun 11 $813 −$129 -16%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$8 +4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 11? Jun 11 $108 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on June 11? Jun 11 $508 +$32 +6%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $520 +$77 +15%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 11? Jun 11 $149 −$119 -80%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$2 +9%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,335 +$115 +9%
Will Meta (META) close above $600 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $78 −$45 -58%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 11? Jun 11 $322 −$122 -38%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 11? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +9%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $521 −$62 -12%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $166 +$10 +6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $129 −$126 -98%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$53 -97%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $114 −$110 -97%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 11? Jun 11 $119 −$116 -97%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $222 −$12 -5%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $556 +$55 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 50% +$2,058
other 24% +$4,608
tech 24% +$3,435
sports 3% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $47 0m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 0m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $18 6m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $21 6m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? BUY No 20¢ $21 6m
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 29¢ $3 6m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 9m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 9m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 9m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 9m
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 8 above $290? BUY No 2¢ $2 9m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 28¢ $3 12m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 12? BUY No 16¢ $8 20m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 26¢ $8 20m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 26¢ $27 20m
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 9¢ $0 27m
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 35¢ $1 27m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $26 32m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $26 32m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 25¢ $23 32m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $18 32m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $19 33m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $24 33m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 12? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 36m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? BUY No 34¢ $70 38m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 42m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 23¢ $2 45m
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $240? BUY No 20¢ $2 48m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 24¢ $25 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 169 +76.2% +59.4% 62% 35% +2.6%
≤30d 169 +76.2% +59.4% 62% 35% +2.6%
≤90d 169 +76.2% +59.4% 62% 35% +2.6%
all 169 +76.2% +59.4% 62% 35% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover880.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +59.4% 35% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here +44.1% 28% -7.3%
15% +30.2% 22% -16.2%
20% +17.4% 20% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,067.18 · official $9,067.28 (match) · 3500 history records