Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x982a…8284 crypto 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$524 (+6%) realized +$524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate63%108W / 63L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$262
sports 25% +$696
world 7% −$11
finance 3% −$4
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.0% -1.4% 57% 14% -5.9%
≤30d 40 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 40% +2.9%
≤90d 106 -12.9% -21.2% 46% 42% -0.0%
all 171 -7.1% -15.9% 63% 32% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 32% -4.9%
10% -24.0% 27% -14.0%
15% -31.3% 22% -22.3%
20% -38.1% 20% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses108 / 63
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage119d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 99¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$19 +60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $343 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 17 $32 −$1 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 03 $73 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 03 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 03 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$3 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $36 −$35 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $30 +$8 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $168 −$14 -8%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $425 +$222 +52%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $253 −$100 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +72%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $51 +$43 +86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 25 $111 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 25 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 24 $11 +$5 +45%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $102 +$164 +161%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $435 +$97 +22%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $132 +$72 +54%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $250 +$58 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $10 +$6 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $10 +$4 +35%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $51 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $42 +$30 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $42 +$38 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $89 46m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $1 51m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $88 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? SELL No 63¢ $31 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $32 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $3 6d
Will White House post 0-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $79 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 16d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 BUY Yes 98¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $73 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $28 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 19d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $154 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $168 19d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 99¢ $422 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 52¢ $226 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.99 · official $2.99 (match) · 429 history records