Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x982c…0d6e sports 1272 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$739 (-9%) realized −$685 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate59%735W / 512L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day82.1pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$933
14 days−$622
30 days−$741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$675
crypto 23% −$75
world 8% −$47
other 3% +$11
tech 1% +$8
politics 0% −$14
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 -41.6% -47.2% 31% 28% -35.6%
≤30d 1246 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 52% -18.1%
≤90d 1247 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 52% -18.1%
all 1247 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 52% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 52% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 43% -25.9%
15% -29.4% 31% -33.1%
20% -36.3% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$685
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses735 / 512
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1247 / 1272
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day82.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 1247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-24%)
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Dynamo Esports 67¢ 69¢ $16 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 62¢ 67¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 36¢ 22¢ $17 $11 −$6 (-38%)
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Team Evictix 46¢ 74¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+60%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+79%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 13¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-5%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? No 80¢ 8¢ $24 $2 −$21 (-90%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 52¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Yes 60¢ 43¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 62¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 42¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 18¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-78%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$30 -84%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$22 +114%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +51%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $48 +$36 +76%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 16 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $60 +$28 +46%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $3 +$1 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $7 +$3 +50%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$6 +128%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $25 +$11 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $41 +$32 +79%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $13 +$26 +204%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) SELL San Diego Padres 100¢ $9 22m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 43¢ $13 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 52¢ $13 2h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY San Diego Padres 54¢ $5 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 31¢ $9 2h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $20 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $21 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 46¢ $2 4h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 46¢ $4 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 4h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) SELL Paper Rex 41¢ $4 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 52¢ $5 5h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 5h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $5 5h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $5 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $15 6h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $5 8h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $19 8h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 49¢ $3 9h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $5 9h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $25 10h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.42 · official $179.42 (match) · 3500 history records