Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9830…e001 sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$346 (-38%) realized −$343 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate69%41W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$21
14 days−$358
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$355
sports 42% −$22
other 12% +$26
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +10.4% -0.1% 81% 70% -3.6%
≤30d 59 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 61% -47.3%
≤90d 59 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 61% -47.3%
all 59 -0.6% -10.1% 69% 61% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 61% -47.3%
10% -18.7% 32% -52.4%
15% -26.6% 25% -57.0%
20% -33.8% 17% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses41 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 63
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Over 79¢ 70¢ $34 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Under 66¢ 69¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $16 −$1 -8%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 $0 +3%
France to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 22 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12 +$1 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $27 +$4 +13%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $17 −$5 -29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 +$1 +20%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $9 +$2 +17%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$1 -28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $9 −$7 -73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $9 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 +$1 +37%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 $0 +20%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $8 +$1 +17%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $4 +$3 +83%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 +$2 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$4 -78%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $4 +$2 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$1 +11%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$1 +14%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4 +$3 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2 +$1 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3 $0 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $5 −$4 -71%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +17%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +11%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 +$2 +23%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +16%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 +$1 +27%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17 Jun 18 $4 +$2 +38%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$1 +12%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $15 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $35 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Under 97¢ $9 1h
France to score first vs. Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 3h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $16 4h
France to score first vs. Iraq? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 4h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $12 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $12 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $17 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $27 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 SELL Under 65¢ $4 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $3 30h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium BUY 48¢ $2 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 41h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $5 41h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $5 41h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $9 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $5 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $9 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 41h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $9 41h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $1 46h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.38 · official $39.38 (match) · 151 history records