Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x9830…127c sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$85 (+17%) realized +$96 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$17
other 36% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 62% 62% +16.1%
≤30d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 62% 62% +16.1%
≤90d 8 +32.2% +19.6% 62% 62% +16.1%
all 8 +32.2% +19.6% 62% 62% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.6% 62% +16.1%
10% +8.2% 62% +5.0%
15% -2.3% 62% -5.2%
20% -11.9% 38% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$26 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 40¢ $51 $40 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 +$15 +285%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $47 +$53 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $31 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 26¢ $3 2h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 26¢ $3 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $30 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 26h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $69 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 29h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $0 39h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $5 39h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $0 39h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.02 · official $100.02 (match) · 20 history records