Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9835…0383 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-11%) realized −$50 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$8
sports 11% $0
crypto 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 22% -29.8%
≤30d 18 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 22% -29.8%
≤90d 18 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 22% -29.8%
all 18 -4.0% -13.1% 22% 22% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 22% -29.8%
10% -21.5% 22% -36.5%
15% -29.0% 22% -42.7%
20% -36.0% 22% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 72¢ $29 $44 +$16 (+55%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$10 +107%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 −$4 -39%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -12%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$13 +177%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -89%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$5 -73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$17 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -63%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $52 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 28h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 29h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.57 · official $103.83 · 64 history records