Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
98 0x9836…d4b9 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+10%) realized +$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$94
world 8% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.8% -0.7% 60% 60% +20.4%
≤30d 5 +9.8% -0.7% 60% 60% +20.4%
≤90d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% +4.1%
all 6 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 50% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 50% +4.1%
10% -25.2% 50% -5.8%
15% -32.4% 50% -14.9%
20% -39.0% 50% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$38 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage90d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $130 +$71 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $54 +$76 +140%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$19 +55%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $130 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $54 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? BUY Yes 29¢ $45 89d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.20 · official $198.20 (match) · 10 history records