Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

98 0x9837…ad59 sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,161 (+12%) realized +$1,172 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%18W / 21L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$218per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Fees−$134est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$589now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)+5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	39	+16.3%	+5.2%	46%	46%	+1.3%
≤30d	39	+16.3%	+5.2%	46%	46%	+1.3%
≤90d	39	+16.3%	+5.2%	46%	46%	+1.3%
all	39	+16.3%	+5.2%	46%	46%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.2%	46%	+1.3%
10%	-4.8%	46%	-8.4%
15%	-14.0%	41%	-17.2%
20%	-22.5%	41%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +83% → late -47% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$301 vs −$206 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$589

Realized+$1,172

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses18 / 21

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$134

Open positions5

Markets (closed)39 / 45

History coverage6d

Avg bet$218

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 39 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	Ghana	7¢	6¢	$200	$186	−$14 (-7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Over	61¢	64¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	51¢	52¢	$100	$103	+$3 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Ghana	19¢	18¢	$100	$97	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$122	+$105	+86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$303	+$166	+55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$203	−$203	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$81	−$80	-98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$152	+$76	+50%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 17	$71	+$23	+32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$61	−$60	-98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$203	−$200	-98%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$509	+$741	+146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$93	−$90	-97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-98%
Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 16	$164	−$160	-98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$304	−$300	-99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$304	+$296	+97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$113	−$110	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$203	−$200	-98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$204	−$200	-98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 15	$328	−$320	-98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$306	−$300	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$304	−$300	-99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$20	+$11	+52%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$162	+$142	+88%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$285	−$280	-98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$609	+$590	+97%
Spread: Germany (-4.5)	Jun 14	$204	+$402	+197%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$5	+$28	+550%
Spread: Germany (-5.5)	Jun 14	$102	+$426	+416%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$302	+$100	+33%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$708	+$439	+62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 14	$305	+$347	+114%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 14	$1,012	−$1,012	-100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 13	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 13	$28	+$90	+325%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$306	+$603	+197%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$305	−$300	-98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$598	+$835	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	51¢	$101	1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	61¢	$101	1h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	7¢	$206	2h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	19¢	$102	2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY	5¢	$21	2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$41	10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	53¢	$122	12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	64¢	$303	12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	39¢	$81	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	53¢	$101	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	56¢	$101	15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$228	16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$93	16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	26¢	$61	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	75¢	$71	18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	66¢	$152	18h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Iraq	50¢	$203	18h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	7¢	$41	30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	7¢	$51	30h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	16¢	$103	30h
Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY France	20¢	$164	30h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$509	30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	59¢	$304	38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	14¢	$10	46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	14¢	$103	46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	49¢	$203	46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	28¢	$204	46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	50¢	$304	46h
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	21¢	$328	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $588.93 · official $606.97 · 71 history records