Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x983d…6288 sports 32 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$700 (+33%) realized +$700 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%18W / 14L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$643
other 10% +$11
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +18.8%
≤30d 32 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +18.8%
≤90d 32 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +18.8%
all 32 +23.0% +11.3% 56% 56% +18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 56% +18.8%
10% +0.7% 56% +7.4%
15% -9.1% 53% -2.9%
20% -18.0% 47% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$50 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$700
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses18 / 14
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage5d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $45 −$44 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $174 −$170 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$50 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$50 +49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$54 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$64 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 +$83 +321%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$90 +88%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $103 +$151 +147%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $103 +$141 +137%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$26 +193%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$51 +246%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$35 +68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$38 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$17 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$67 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $76 +$164 +217%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $159 +$113 +71%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $60 +$100 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $174 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $152 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $102 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $51 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $26 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $102 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $102 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $254 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 4d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $103 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $103 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $102 4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) SELL Sweden 80¢ $39 5d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 26¢ $13 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $86 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $89 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $26 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $68 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records