Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x983e…5453 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$4
other 9% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+45.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.9% -15.8% 0% 0% -16.5%
≤30d 10 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 17 +114.8% +94.3% 35% 12% -9.0%
all 31 +60.6% +45.3% 48% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.3% 10% -9.1%
10% +31.4% 3% -17.8%
15% +18.7% 3% -25.7%
20% +7.0% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +122% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage464d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $42 −$11 -26%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $71 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $56 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $13 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $57 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $77 +$13 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $8 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 22 $5 $0 -6%
Israel strike on Iran on June 22? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 20 $5 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $3 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 23 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $16 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $42 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $38 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $12 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $8 40h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $9 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $50 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $20 27d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $56 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 27d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $44 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $21 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records