Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x9840…e6bc
other · 68 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$37 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$38 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$181
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses4 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)7%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)59 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$495
Trades / day918.1
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 9 History 59 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 98¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $667 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $1,943 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,122 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $275 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $326 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $330 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $128 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $389 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $2,667 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $851 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $486 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $1,136 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 12 $559 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,345 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $197 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $737 +$21 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $1,316 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $80 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $172 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $188 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $2,546 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $375 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $347 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $348 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,200 −$1 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% +$16
world 16% +$2
economics 15% −$1
crypto 11% +$23
tech 11% −$1
politics 10% −$2
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $19 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $27 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $27 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $12 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 18m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $29 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $29 19m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $36 19m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $7 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $23 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $33 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $6 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $6 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $6 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $6 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $10 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 2% -9.4%
≤30d 59 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 59 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 2% -9.4%
all 59 +0.8% -8.8% 7% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover918.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 2% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.31 · official $181.31 (match) · 3500 history records