Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9840…8b6d sports 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,195 (+16%) realized +$1,197 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate66%78W / 41L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$24
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,178
other 14% +$54
tech 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -21.4% -28.8% 60% 60% -23.0%
≤90d 11 +38.6% +25.4% 82% 82% +45.2%
all 119 +8.3% -2.0% 66% 59% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 59% +4.5%
10% -11.4% 51% -5.5%
15% -20.0% 43% -14.6%
20% -27.8% 31% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$35 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$1,197
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses78 / 41
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage255d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 0.5 Rounds Over 90¢ 87¢ $57 $55 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $38 +$7 +20%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $59 +$28 +48%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $8 +$13 +155%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $41 +$19 +47%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 10 $100 +$43 +44%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 10 $274 +$192 +70%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $221 +$169 +76%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 05 $94 +$132 +140%
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel Mar 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donte Johnson win by KO or TKO? Mar 24 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Mar 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jean Silva win by KO or TKO? Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chidi Njokuani win by KO or TKO? Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Mar 24 $23 −$23 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Mar 24 $179 −$179 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca Mar 24 $139 −$139 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh Mar 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Mason Jones win by KO or TKO? Mar 24 $102 +$58 +56%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 26 $9 +$1 +10%
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) Feb 24 $72 +$20 +28%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 23 $102 +$12 +12%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 22 $5 +$5 +117%
UFC Fight Night: Juliana Miller vs. Carli Judice (Women's Flyweight, P Feb 22 $34 +$16 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Joselyne Edwards vs. Nora Cornolle (Women's Bantamwei Feb 22 $34 +$16 +49%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Feb 22 $30 +$31 +103%
UFC Fight Night: Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (Welterweight, Prelims Feb 21 $58 +$6 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Car Feb 19 $136 $0 +0%
Will Torrez Finney win by KO or TKO? Feb 01 $120 +$30 +25%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jan 28 $26 $0 +0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jan 28 $149 +$19 +12%
Will Paddy Pimblett win by KO or TKO? Jan 25 $10 +$6 +67%
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 25 $36 +$16 +45%
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $110 +$53 +48%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 25 $114 +$86 +75%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jan 25 $3 +$2 +82%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 25 $4 +$2 +59%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 24 $670 +$103 +15%
UFC 324: Turcios vs. Smotherman (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jan 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will the match end in a draw or not be completed? Dec 31 $509 +$27 +5%
Will Arman Tsarukyan win against Shara Magomedov? Dec 30 $33 +$9 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Robertson vs. Lemos (Women's Strawweight, Prelims) Dec 19 $3 $0 -9%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Dec 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Dec 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 90¢ $57 1h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 79¢ $4 12d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 83¢ $38 12d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY No 83¢ $54 12d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY No 64¢ $6 12d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 67¢ $59 12d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL No 52¢ $97 48d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL No 52¢ $2 48d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Alexander Volkov 56¢ $221 48d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL No 52¢ $5 48d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $6 48d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $2 48d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 69¢ $100 48d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 68¢ $22 52d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 67¢ $13 52d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY No 66¢ $6 52d
Will the fight be won by submission? SELL No 47¢ $33 52d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 44¢ $179 52d
Will the fight be won by submission? BUY No 47¢ $95 53d
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Renato Moicano 41¢ $94 83d
UFC Fight Night: Julian Erosa vs. Lerryan Douglas (Featherweight, Prel BUY Julian Erosa 25¢ $53 92d
Will Mason Jones win by KO or TKO? BUY No 64¢ $102 99d
UFC Fight Night: Luke Riley vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Main Ca BUY Michael Aswell 31¢ $139 101d
UFC Fight Night: Roman Dolidze vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweigh BUY Christian Leroy Duncan 59¢ $3 111d
Will Donte Johnson win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 111d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 64¢ $10 120d
UFC 326: Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long (Bantamweight, Prelims) SELL Xiao Long 57¢ $56 122d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 68¢ $4 123d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 68¢ $110 123d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 59¢ $3 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.15 · official $55.15 (match) · 376 history records