Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x9842…efe0 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 441d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$4
world 30% −$1
politics 13% $0
crypto 10% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 3% +$3
weather 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.2% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 50 +3.1% -6.7% 54% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 4% -9.0%
10% -15.7% 4% -17.7%
15% -23.8% 4% -25.6%
20% -31.3% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

441d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage441d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $116 +$2 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $37 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $77 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 14? May 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 13 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 11 $12 +$1 +7%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend May 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $22 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 07 $13 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 4? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? Apr 30 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the Wooden Award? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $42 3m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $41 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 8h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $26 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 17h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $37 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $37 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $25 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $13 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $21 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $17 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $38 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $42 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $42 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $1 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records