Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:56:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9842…00d7 crypto 1079 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$135 (-2%) realized −$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate81%870W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day194.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$39
7 days−$888
14 days−$144
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 680 -19.8% -27.5% 69% 26% -25.9%
≤30d 1079 -5.0% -14.0% 81% 43% -11.0%
≤90d 1079 -5.0% -14.0% 81% 43% -11.0%
all 1079 -5.0% -14.0% 81% 43% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 43% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 19% -19.5%
15% -29.7% 8% -27.3%
20% -36.6% 5% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses870 / 209
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day194.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records