Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9843…266f sports 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$645 (+6%) realized +$547 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate76%64W / 20L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$179
14 days+$732
30 days+$732
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$820
other 5% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -12.8% -21.1% 72% 53% -7.2%
≤30d 84 +1.5% -8.1% 76% 62% -2.6%
≤90d 84 +1.5% -8.1% 76% 62% -2.6%
all 84 +1.5% -8.1% 76% 62% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 62% -2.6%
10% -16.9% 44% -12.0%
15% -24.9% 20% -20.5%
20% -32.3% 12% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$57 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$523
Realized+$547
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses64 / 20
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)84 / 86
History coverage14d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Alexandra Eala 69¢ 100¢ $225 $326 +$101 (+45%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 88¢ 86¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $327 +$65 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $220 +$6 +3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$90 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $239 +$15 +6%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $101 +$40 +40%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $136 +$31 +23%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $272 +$78 +29%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $174 +$99 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $129 −$129 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 15 $170 +$12 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 15 $168 +$26 +16%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $143 +$25 +17%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $123 +$21 +17%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $100 +$23 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $100 +$13 +13%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $200 +$17 +8%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $88 +$20 +23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $333 +$21 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $68 +$20 +29%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $90 +$58 +64%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $105 +$15 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $354 +$63 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs mCon esports (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $129 −$129 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $315 +$19 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $296 +$18 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $236 +$60 +25%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $209 +$27 +13%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $129 +$9 +7%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$9 +7%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$20 +20%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $155 +$22 +14%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $140 +$15 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $102 +$38 +38%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $74 +$28 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 88¢ $201 1m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Donna Vekic 19¢ $8 7m
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 100¢ $392 7m
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 69¢ $227 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $227 1h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 83¢ $327 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 97¢ $220 2h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 54¢ $25 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $254 14h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $239 15h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Jiri Lehecka 100¢ $141 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 16h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 71¢ $101 17h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 81¢ $136 18h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $350 18h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 77¢ $272 19h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $272 19h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 63¢ $174 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $129 44h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 56¢ $41 44h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $183 45h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito BUY Petra Marcinko 93¢ $170 45h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool SELL Cash/Glasspool 100¢ $194 45h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Cerundolo/Nakashima vs Cash/Glasspool BUY Cash/Glasspool 86¢ $168 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $168 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 85¢ $143 47h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova SELL Marie Bouzkova 100¢ $143 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.10 · official $475.18 · 178 history records