Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x984a…f58f crypto 691 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$93 (+1%) realized +$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%685W / 6L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$56
14 days+$82
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$88
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 691 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 1% -8.6%
≤90d 691 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 1% -8.6%
all 691 +1.0% -8.7% 99% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses685 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)691 / 691
History coverage21d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 691 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1376 history records