Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

98 0x984e…493f other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$615 (+29%) realized +$606 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip

Net edge+33%after slip

Net WR88%break-even

Win rate88%15W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$97per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit27%portable

Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$608

7 days+$636

14 days+$636

30 days+$636

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +88%

net ROI/market (all)+38.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+53.4%	+38.8%	88%	88%	+22.6%
≤30d	17	+53.4%	+38.8%	88%	88%	+22.6%
≤90d	17	+53.4%	+38.8%	88%	88%	+22.6%
all	17	+53.4%	+38.8%	88%	88%	+22.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+38.8%	88%	+22.6%
10%	+25.5%	88%	+10.9%
15%	+13.4%	76%	+0.2%
20%	+2.3%	59%	-9.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 12% · top 2 23% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +53% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late +70% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$132 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$353

Realized+$606

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses15 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions5

Markets (closed)17 / 22

History coverage9d

Avg bet$97

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$130	$129	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$130	$129	−$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	62¢	60¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo	Messi	64¢	93¢	$24	$35	+$11 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	20¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$156	+$51	+32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	Jun 20	$31	+$49	+160%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$283	+$80	+28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$122	+$85	+70%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$151	+$66	+43%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	+$107	+105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$132	+$92	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$126	+$78	+62%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 19	$172	+$98	+57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$41	+$41	+101%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Jun 18	$24	−$23	-98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$21	+$22	+105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$42	+$19	+46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$45	+$22	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$243	−$242	-99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$51	+$44	+86%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$51	+$47	+93%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$131	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$131	1h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$217	32h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	75¢	$156	32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$122	32h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$208	33h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$102	34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20	BUY	38¢	$31	35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$162	36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	64¢	$117	36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$121	36h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$132	41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$205	41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$126	45h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$151	45h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	100¢	$270	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	48¢	$24	3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$21	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	49¢	$41	4d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo	BUY Messi	64¢	$24	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$42	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$45	5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$51	5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$10	5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	80¢	$243	5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Ciryl Gane	51¢	$51	8d
O/U 1.5 Rounds	BUY Over	53¢	$51	8d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	63¢	$172	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.57 · official $352.57 (match) · 41 history records