Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9851…c31d crypto 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$290 (-10%) realized −$268 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%65W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$291
14 days−$349
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$379
other 30% −$83
sports 14% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -3.3% -12.5% 71% 46% -25.3%
≤30d 109 -8.8% -17.4% 60% 47% -26.1%
≤90d 109 -8.8% -17.4% 60% 47% -26.1%
all 109 -8.8% -17.4% 60% 47% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 47% -26.1%
10% -25.3% 30% -33.2%
15% -32.6% 18% -39.6%
20% -39.2% 11% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$15 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$634
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses65 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)109 / 123
History coverage20d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $45 $62 +$17 (+39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+15%)
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $98 +$45 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $169 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$3 +32%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 +$16 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $49 +$8 +17%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$27 -45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 +$13 +61%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $216 −$216 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $24 +$40 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $68 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +34%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $63 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$12 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $89 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 -1%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $91 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 23h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 25h
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 25h
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 25h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 25h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $21 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $7 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $112 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $55 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.28 · official $634.48 (match) · 268 history records