Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9852…8bcd sports 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$44 (-5%) realized −$37 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$25
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$7
other 47% −$53
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.2% -32.3% 40% 40% -24.9%
≤30d 48 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 40% -17.9%
≤90d 48 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 40% -17.9%
all 48 -10.9% -19.4% 42% 40% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -17.9%
10% -27.1% 35% -25.8%
15% -34.1% 27% -33.0%
20% -40.6% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage12d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 85¢ 78¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -76%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -95%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -62%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $5 +$1 +24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 +$11 +150%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +39%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 −$22 -62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -92%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 +$9 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$7 -23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$24 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $18 +$8 +42%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$17 -86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -30%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$4 -58%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +711%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 1m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $52 6m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 9m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $27 13m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 14m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 31m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 37m
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $45 40m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $38 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $12 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $13 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.64 · official $57.64 (match) · 128 history records