Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
98 0x9853…86c9 politics 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate9%1W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$630per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$22
other 28% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 11 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 9% -9.8%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses1 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage132d
Avg bet$630
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $408 $407 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $360 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 05 $13 +$1 +11%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $2,287 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,368 −$4 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,257 −$15 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 1h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 6h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 7h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 10h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 10h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 12h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 16h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 16h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 36h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $129 42h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 72d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $1 81d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $359 108d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 108d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 108d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,287 108d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,287 114d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $2 116d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $12 117d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $12 117d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 117d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 117d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,242 117d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,490 117d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,257 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $605.84 · official $605.84 (match) · 164 history records