trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +11.5% | +0.9% | 100% | 25% | -3.9% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 69% | 23% | -5.6% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 73% | 33% | -5.5% |
| all | 15 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 73% | 33% | -5.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.2% | 33% | -5.5% |
| 10% | -12.4% | 13% | -14.5% |
| 15% | -20.9% | 0% | -22.8% |
| 20% | -28.6% | 0% | -30.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | $79 | $78 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 89¢ | 86¢ | $67 | $65 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $55 | $54 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $24 | $24 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele | Jun 17 | $18 | +$6 | +33% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $66 | +$4 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $82 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 17 | $80 | +$5 | +6% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | -1% |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | May 29 | $2 | +$1 | +22% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | May 29 | $3 | −$1 | -21% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 29 | $12 | $0 | -2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | May 29 | $9 | +$1 | +12% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | May 29 | $203 | +$5 | +3% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? | May 12 | $3 | $0 | +14% |