Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:41:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9854…6bf2 other 93 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (281 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$725,591 (-13%) realized −$724,591 · open −$1,000
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 53L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59,185per market
Trades / day281.2pace
Fees−$16,939est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$131,000now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$179,117
sports 22% −$317,791
crypto 1% +$21,500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (281 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -15.2% -23.3% 38% 37% -17.4%
≤30d 90 +13.6% +2.8% 41% 39% -12.3%
≤90d 90 +13.6% +2.8% 41% 39% -12.3%
all 90 +13.6% +2.8% 41% 39% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover281.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 39% -12.3%
10% -7.0% 39% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -16.0% 34% -28.4%
20% -24.2% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$66,059) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +44% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
22.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$48,724 vs −$36,207 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$131,000
Realized−$724,591
Unrealized−$1,000
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$16,939
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$59,185
Trades / day281.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $74,000 $73,500 −$500 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $58,000 $57,500 −$500 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $58,731 +$41,269 +70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $21,600 +$18,400 +85%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15,124 −$14,925 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $72,432 +$136,538 +188%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $91,485 −$90,000 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $37,317 +$62,683 +168%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $17,208 −$17,000 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $65,024 +$34,976 +54%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $35,168 −$35,000 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101,710 −$100,000 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $145,210 +$45,528 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $685,312 −$131,444 -19%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,282 −$3,282 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $28,827 −$28,827 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $76,987 +$188,587 +245%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $103,127 −$50,977 -49%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $60,688 −$60,688 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $119,014 −$70,816 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $349,173 −$103,654 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $239,175 −$239,175 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $144,836 +$153,545 +106%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $79,427 −$47,614 -60%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $30,736 −$3,363 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $39,738 −$3,360 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $28,518 −$1,632 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $22,383 −$2,451 -11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $11,662 +$2,983 +26%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10,888 −$267 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $11,107 −$3,422 -31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60,792 +$45,341 +75%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $50,795 +$55,478 +109%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $21,365 −$21,365 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $52,039 −$52,039 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $65,181 +$34,819 +53%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35,273 +$10,631 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $48,498 −$13,040 -27%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $31,863 +$28,137 +88%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $36,013 +$13,987 +39%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $32,188 −$32,188 -100%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $86,603 −$83,634 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19,405 −$19,405 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $107,806 −$107,806 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $44,739 −$40,967 -92%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $15,288 −$15,288 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30,303 −$30,303 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $18,417 −$18,417 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $28,041 −$28,041 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $123,439 +$69,893 +57%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $228,104 +$99,435 +44%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21,765 +$28,394 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $58,731 28m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $74,577 29m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $86 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $58,645 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $34 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $592 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2,327 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $175 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $55 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $5,271 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $302 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $6,024 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 30¢ $302 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131,000.00 · official $131,000.00 (match) · 3500 history records