Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9858…6bae other 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate57%20W / 15L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$2
other 33% +$7
politics 10% $0
crypto 8% +$1
sports 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +1.7% -8.0% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 44% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +1.1% -8.6% 44% 0% -9.1%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 3% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -8.3%
10% -18.1% 3% -17.1%
15% -26.0% 3% -25.1%
20% -33.3% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.4 per $1 lost it wins $3.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage468d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27? Jun 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Cooper Flagg win the Wooden Award? Apr 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 03 $8 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $46 $0 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.17 on March 28? Mar 29 $23 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in March? Mar 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will “Adolescence: Limited Series” be the top global Netflix show this Mar 26 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $20 +$1 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Illinois win the Big Ten conference tournament? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $3 −$2 -74%
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? Mar 13 $16 +$8 +54%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $40 10m
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $3 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $31 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $18 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $22 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $37 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records