Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9859…7012 politics 212 markets active 11h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,225 (+2%) realized +$5,223 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%61W / 149L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$1,547per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$36
14 days−$82
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$176
other 32% +$114
sports 13% +$4,825
culture 5% −$17
crypto 2% +$341
economics 2% −$5
world 1% −$4
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 53 +5.0% -5.0% 11% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 134 +2.6% -7.2% 19% 17% -8.9%
all 210 +5.7% -4.3% 29% 19% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 19% -8.1%
10% -13.5% 19% -16.9%
15% -21.8% 17% -24.9%
20% -29.5% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$2,497) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$15 · ×7.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.23 per $1 lost it wins $3.23
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized+$5,223
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses61 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions2
Markets (closed)210 / 212
History coverage147d
Avg bet$1,547
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $204 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $153 $155 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,850 −$3 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,193 −$5 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,416 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,434 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,325 −$7 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $5,301 −$8 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,304 −$6 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $3,813 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,661 −$4 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,918 −$5 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,683 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $2,779 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,108 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $3,513 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4,359 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,681 −$6 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $7,135 −$10 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $3,530 −$4 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $2,159 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,616 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $37 +$25 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $47 +$97 +206%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,770 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $516 $0 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $4,297 −$5 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $923 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $786 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $3,669 −$5 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 29 $1,845 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,868 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,420 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,031 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $473 11h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $473 11h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $204 12h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $449 13h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $449 15h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $351 16h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $351 18h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $566 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $567 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $658 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $659 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,094 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,096 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $945 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $947 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $818 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,090 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,091 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,298 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,299 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,294 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,296 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,300 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,297 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $359.52 · official $359.52 (match) · 898 history records