Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x985a…20b8 crypto 1611 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate95%1535W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day37.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$73
other 2% +$11
sports 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1248 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 3% -10.2%
≤90d 1610 -0.7% -10.1% 95% 4% -10.0%
all 1610 -0.7% -10.1% 95% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 4% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1535 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1610 / 1611
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day37.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1610 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.19 · official $64.19 (match) · 3200 history records