Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x985a…df24 crypto 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$272 (-2%) realized −$268 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%83W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$144
7 days+$144
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$316
other 2% +$267
weather 1% −$144
world 1% −$13
finance 0% +$5
politics 0% −$29
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
≤30d 11 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
≤90d 11 +7.5% -2.8% 64% 64% +9.4%
all 134 -3.7% -12.8% 62% 43% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 43% -10.8%
10% -21.2% 32% -19.3%
15% -28.8% 23% -27.1%
20% -35.8% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$67 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses83 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage165d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$114 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $77 +$25 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $62 +$52 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi Jun 21 $96 +$67 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 09 $132 −$130 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 09 $95 +$37 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 09 $206 −$203 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 09 $59 +$167 +281%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 09 $50 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 09 $50 +$76 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 08 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 08 $284 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 08 $200 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 08 $240 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 08 $238 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 08 $161 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 08 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 08 $600 +$77 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 08 $723 +$37 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 08 $105 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 08 $720 +$27 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$140 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$88 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 08 $100 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 08 $431 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 08 $60 +$54 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 08 $116 +$84 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Feb 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 08 $100 +$62 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 08 $330 −$121 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 08 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 07 $200 +$40 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 07 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 07 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 07 $100 +$34 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $114 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 58¢ $96 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.99 · official $40.99 (match) · 345 history records