Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9860…cc31 weather 93 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$109 (-3%) realized −$109 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%81W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$110
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 39 -2.5% -11.7% 97% 0% -12.7%
≤90d 77 -1.8% -11.2% 97% 0% -12.3%
all 91 -1.6% -11.0% 89% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -12.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -20.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -28.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$109
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses81 / 10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage120d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 30? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 29? May 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 28? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on May 27? May 28 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? May 26 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 20? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 20? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17? May 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 16? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 12? May 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on May 12? May 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on May 11? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 34-35°F on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 5? May 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $113 16h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $115 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $83 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $115 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $85 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $114 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $115 10d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $92 11d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $115 11d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $114 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $114 14d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $114 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $114 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $114 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $113 17d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $114 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $113 19d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $113 19d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $102 20d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.52 · official $116.52 (match) · 184 history records