Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
98 0x9865…5214 other 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$137 (-20%) realized −$122 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$659
14 days+$570
30 days+$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$45
sports 32% +$710
crypto 24% −$90
world 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +62.5% +47.0% 33% 33% +181.0%
≤30d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 30% 30% +99.6%
≤90d 10 +11.1% +0.5% 30% 30% +99.6%
all 10 +11.1% +0.5% 30% 30% +99.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 30% +99.6%
10% -9.1% 30% +80.5%
15% -17.9% 30% +63.1%
20% -25.9% 20% +47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +121% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +121% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$32 · ×8.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.57 per $1 lost it wins $3.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$122
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage7d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 37¢ 26¢ $56 $39 −$17 (-31%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 70¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor Jun 23 $100 +$710 +712%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 +$63 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $82 −$78 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.24 · official $71.24 (match) · 23 history records