Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9865…57ac sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$738 (-33%) realized −$683 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -86% what you keep after slip
Net edge-86%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$928
sports 40% −$568
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-86.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -81.2%
≤30d 6 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -81.2%
≤90d 6 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -81.2%
all 6 -84.7% -86.1% 0% 0% -81.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.1% 0% -81.2%
10% -87.5% 0% -83.0%
15% -88.7% 0% -84.6%
20% -89.8% 0% -86.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$240 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized−$683
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay 10¢ 8¢ $369 $314 −$55 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $412 −$33 -8%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $908 −$895 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 10¢ $379 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $379 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $412 3h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 7¢ $103 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $103 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $205 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 18¢ $102 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $908 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.83 · official $313.83 (match) · 12 history records