Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9866…a712 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,342 (-19%) realized −$2,445 · open +$103
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$570per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$791now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$91
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$2,482
crypto 18% +$95
other 7% +$135
world 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 50% -0.1%
≤90d 7 +11.7% +1.1% 86% 29% -3.9%
all 21 -10.5% -19.0% 71% 24% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 24% -27.4%
10% -26.7% 19% -34.4%
15% -33.8% 19% -40.7%
20% -40.3% 10% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$728) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -25% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$997 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$791
Realized−$2,445
Unrealized+$103
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage154d
Avg bet$570
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $688 $791 +$103 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $143 +$27 +18%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 13 $735 +$65 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3? May 04 $397 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $13 +$5 +44%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 01 $673 +$27 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 16 $188 +$12 +6%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 09 $350 +$150 +43%
Lakers vs. Warriors Feb 28 $456 −$456 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $130 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Celtics Feb 28 $728 +$72 +10%
Knicks vs. Bucks Feb 27 $448 −$448 -100%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Feb 25 $624 −$624 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? Feb 25 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? Feb 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Nuggets vs. Wizards Jan 22 $928 −$928 -100%
Rockets vs. 76ers Jan 22 $2,530 −$2,530 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $26 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 22 $1,938 +$1,462 +75%
Clippers vs. Bulls Jan 21 $1,180 +$820 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $691 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $143 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 90¢ $180 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 90¢ $91 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? BUY No 93¢ $465 48d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 51d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 51d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 51d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $320 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $77 52d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 53d
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $207 62d
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $9 67d
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $2 67d
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? BUY No 96¢ $455 67d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $188 85d
Pelicans vs. Jazz BUY Pelicans 70¢ $350 115d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 38¢ $456 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $130 116d
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $153 116d
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $6 116d
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $515 116d
Nets vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 91¢ $54 116d
Knicks vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 28¢ $448 116d
Warriors vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 39¢ $624 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 146d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 148d
Nuggets vs. Wizards BUY Wizards 32¢ $928 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.80 · official $791.20 (match) · 128 history records