Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x9867…cffc other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,355 (+181%) realized +$425 · open +$1,930
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$2,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% +$2,040
crypto 39% −$105
other 15% −$17
sports 4% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.2% -21.4% 32% 32% -7.5%
≤30d 22 -13.2% -21.4% 32% 32% -7.5%
≤90d 22 -13.2% -21.4% 32% 32% -7.5%
all 22 -13.2% -21.4% 32% 32% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 32% -7.5%
10% -29.0% 27% -16.4%
15% -35.8% 27% -24.5%
20% -42.1% 27% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$2,957
Realized+$425
Unrealized+$1,930
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage82d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 88¢ $452 $2,493 +$2,040 (+451%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $487 $385 −$102 (-21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $25 +$5 (+24%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $18 −$4 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $25 $17 −$8 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$31 +299%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +122%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$26 +213%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$18 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 58m
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $41 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $23 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 88¢ $11 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $501 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $500 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,956.91 · official $2,956.91 (match) · 68 history records