Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x9868…e82b sports 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,583 (+17%) realized +$14,597 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%434W / 378L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$866est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$261now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,418
7 days−$721
14 days+$3,407
30 days+$8,733
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$9,721
other 5% +$1,309
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +12.6% +1.9% 34% 31% -17.5%
≤30d 280 +23.8% +12.0% 50% 47% +13.4%
≤90d 742 +14.8% +3.8% 49% 47% -2.0%
all 812 +19.5% +8.1% 53% 50% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 50% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 47% -7.9%
15% -11.7% 43% -16.8%
20% -20.3% 38% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$69 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$261
Realized+$14,597
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses434 / 378
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$866
Open positions5
Markets (closed)812 / 817
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ 100¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Under 20¢ 52¢ $11 $28 +$17 (+162%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 48¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-34%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 2¢ 100¢ $0 $17 +$17 (+4897%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 66¢ 74¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 8¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-94%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $203 +$182 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: Leo (-1.5) vs Lilmix (+1.5) Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 159.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Cobolli vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: OLDBOYS PL (-1.5) vs RoundsGG (+1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Toulouse win? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Izquierdo vs. Assche: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Izquierdo vs. Assche: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 160.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Astakhova vs. Basiletti: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: LPH Gaming vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Sofya Lansere vs Francesca Curmi Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Jia Hu vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $114 −$114 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 17 $139 −$139 -100%
Partizan vs. BC Dubai Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Taborda vs. Rivera: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs Clutchain (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe P Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 17 $194 −$194 -100%
ITF Madrid: Briyana Ivanova vs Paula Cembranos Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $40 13m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $11 14m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 17m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 8¢ $9 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $101 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $101 1h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Conner Huertas Del Pino 52¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $10 2h
Set 2 Winner: Ehrenschneider vs Kudernatsch BUY Ehrenschneider 1¢ $10 2h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 61¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 62¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 47¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 49¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 51¢ $10 4h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 49¢ $102 4h
Mathis Bondaz vs. Filiberto Fumagalli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 34¢ $5 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 65¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 67¢ $40 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 43¢ $14 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 42¢ $15 9h
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 99¢ $1 11h
Nicolas Ifi vs. Melios Efstathiou: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 33¢ $1 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 37¢ $5 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 44¢ $31 12h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 43¢ $102 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.16 · official $263.25 (match) · 3500 history records