Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x986a…58e3 politics 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$2
politics 26% −$2
other 23% −$3
crypto 8% −$7
economics 6% $0
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -0.5% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 154 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage170d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $49 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 12 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte Feb 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 12 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $101 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 10 $153 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 10 $97 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 09 $98 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 07 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 07 $45 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $45 1h
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $45 5h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $49 12d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $49 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $42 26d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $42 26d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $39 36d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $39 37d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $48 131d
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $48 131d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $46 131d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $46 131d
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte SELL No 98¢ $45 131d
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte BUY No 98¢ $45 131d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $49 131d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $50 131d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $50 131d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $50 131d
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte SELL No 98¢ $10 131d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $33 131d
Will Switzerland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winte BUY No 98¢ $10 131d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $8 131d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $42 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $48 131d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 98¢ $48 131d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 93¢ $50 131d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 93¢ $50 131d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $46 131d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $46 131d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $44 131d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 428 history records