Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x986c…dbc6 sports 956 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 178d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,702 (-3%) realized −$8,685 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%322W / 625L
Whale WR19%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$1,774est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$153
7 days+$197
14 days+$358
30 days−$2,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$10,043
other 4% −$736
world 3% −$209
finance 1% −$66
culture 1% −$128
politics 0% −$13
tech 0% −$56
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$22
crypto 0% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.0% +0.4% 55% 45% +7.1%
≤30d 165 -3.3% -12.5% 30% 28% -18.3%
≤90d 488 +1.1% -8.5% 31% 28% -15.4%
all 947 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 32% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 32% -13.1%
10% -18.6% 31% -21.4%
15% -26.4% 31% -29.0%
20% -33.6% 29% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 19% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$130 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$8,685
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses322 / 625
Whale WR (big bets)19%
Est. fees paid−$1,774
Open positions6
Markets (closed)947 / 956
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$307
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 947 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-41%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-83%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 127 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 24 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 24 $21 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) Jun 23 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) Jun 22 $203 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -10%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $103 +$50 +48%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $101 −$7 -7%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 +$102 +100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $572 +$29 +5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $103 −$12 -11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $163 −$163 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $31 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $450 −$17 -4%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $101 −$13 -13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$92 +180%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$103 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$156 +153%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$103 -50%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $203 +$142 +70%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 +$459 +225%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $460 −$17 -4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $291 +$111 +38%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 11 $203 +$161 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 −$163 -80%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 10 $203 +$189 +93%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-6.5) Jun 09 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Iceland? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Iceland? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 0 Thailand? Jun 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 2 Thailand? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: China PR 1 - 1 Thailand? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $279 +$230 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 08 $204 −$202 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $204 −$94 -46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$54 +53%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $56 +$29 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 +$73 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) SELL New York Liberty 100¢ $392 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) SELL New York Yankees 45¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 2h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) BUY New York Liberty 51¢ $203 14h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) SELL Indiana Fever 100¢ $363 27h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5) BUY Indiana Fever 55¢ $203 37h
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 53¢ $203 37h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Nor BUY 2¢ $21 38h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? SELL No 57¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 22? BUY No 62¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 22? BUY No 61¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $153 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $103 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $101 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 68¢ $94 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 98¢ $100 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 87¢ $104 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 45¢ $102 4d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $101 5d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Spread: Englan BUY 37¢ $36 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 4¢ $21 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 95¢ $572 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.31 · official $40.90 (match) · 3475 history records