Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x986f…5f22 crypto 266 markets active 1d ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (191 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$328 (-8%) realized −$328 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate52%137W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day190.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$161
14 days−$265
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (191 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -13.6% -21.9% 42% 19% -18.4%
≤30d 266 -9.3% -18.0% 52% 20% -15.8%
≤90d 266 -9.3% -18.0% 52% 20% -15.8%
all 266 -9.3% -18.0% 52% 20% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover190.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 20% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 13% -23.8%
15% -33.0% 8% -31.2%
20% -39.5% 6% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$328
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses137 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day190.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$10 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$10 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 35h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records