Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:48:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9870…7d2a crypto 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,509 (-16%) realized −$10,383 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate49%212W / 220L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$170
14 days+$55
30 days−$2,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$12,420
economics 0% −$220
other 0% −$60
tech 0% −$53
world 0% −$28
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.1% -12.4% 69% 37% -1.2%
≤30d 225 -5.6% -14.6% 56% 32% -23.0%
≤90d 432 -15.3% -23.4% 49% 29% -26.8%
all 432 -15.3% -23.4% 49% 29% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 29% -26.8%
10% -30.7% 20% -33.8%
15% -37.4% 14% -40.2%
20% -43.6% 11% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$87 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized−$10,383
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses212 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)432 / 455
History coverage65d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? No 88¢ 87¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Yes 74¢ 75¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Yes 79¢ 5¢ $110 $7 −$103 (-94%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 75¢ 32¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 52¢ 26¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-51%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? No 70¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? Yes 50¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 22-28? No 92¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? No 71¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 68¢ 4¢ $12 $1 −$11 (-94%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? No 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 78¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $115 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +133%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$20 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $106 +$113 +106%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $463 +$86 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $104 +$49 +47%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $1 $0 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $11 +$6 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $521 +$302 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $11 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $8 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +571%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 25? BUY No 88¢ $111 7m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 74¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 25? BUY No 71¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? BUY No 70¢ $1 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 57¢ $104 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 80¢ $111 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $1 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? SELL Yes 61¢ $122 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 56¢ $104 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 26h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $104 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 27h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $106 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.52 · official $256.27 (match) · 1279 history records