Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9874…2e27 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,007 (-7%) realized −$986 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$343per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$5,676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$438
7 days+$1,133
14 days−$1,140
30 days−$1,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$3,348
sports 13% +$2,186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+41.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +89.9% +71.8% 40% 33% +8.0%
≤30d 22 +56.0% +41.1% 36% 32% -21.1%
≤90d 22 +56.0% +41.1% 36% 32% -21.1%
all 22 +56.0% +41.1% 36% 32% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.1% 32% -21.1%
10% +27.6% 32% -28.6%
15% +15.3% 32% -35.5%
20% +4.0% 32% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -47% → late +159% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$654 vs −$455 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5,676
Realized−$986
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions23
Markets (closed)22 / 45
History coverage9d
Avg bet$343
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $905 $896 −$9 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 55¢ $630 $887 +$256 (+41%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 39¢ $522 $628 +$106 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $400 $605 +$205 (+51%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 22¢ $617 $379 −$238 (-39%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 42¢ 42¢ $328 $324 −$4 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $326 $322 −$4 (-1%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $295 $252 −$44 (-15%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 26¢ $463 $234 −$229 (-49%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $212 $204 −$8 (-4%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $132 $127 −$5 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 38¢ $125 $124 −$2 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $123 $120 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 81¢ $125 $118 −$7 (-6%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 33¢ 32¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $84 $77 −$7 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $83 $75 −$8 (-9%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 58¢ $43 $48 +$6 (+14%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+8%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 38¢ $39 $36 −$3 (-9%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $32 $6 −$26 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $212 +$438 +206%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $979 +$989 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $339 +$387 +114%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $154 +$729 +474%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 17 $176 −$171 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $425 −$417 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1,226 −$1,206 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $172 +$2,217 +1292%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $220 +$9 +4%
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $271 −$116 -43%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $384 −$376 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 15 $139 −$135 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $585 −$573 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $504 −$494 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$89 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,122 −$1,102 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $173 −$168 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $280 +$375 +134%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $172 −$168 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $871 −$867 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $443 −$433 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 6¢ $86 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 33¢ $118 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $126 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $136 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $128 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $101 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $217 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $331 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $333 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $918 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $202 12h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 31¢ $147 22h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $150 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $212 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $176 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $425 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 44¢ $1,226 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $979 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $339 5d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 49¢ $414 6d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 51¢ $229 6d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 26¢ $155 6d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $384 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $154 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $139 6d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $93 6d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $44 6d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $37 6d
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,676.12 · official $5,676.12 (match) · 83 history records