Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x9878…aacc other 59 markets active 10h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%11W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$13
politics 8% −$6
other 6% −$4
sports 1% −$26
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 +5.5% -4.6% 11% 6% -7.7%
≤90d 44 -8.1% -16.8% 18% 11% -11.6%
all 58 -6.4% -15.3% 19% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 9% -9.8%
10% -23.4% 9% -18.4%
15% -30.8% 9% -26.3%
20% -37.6% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses11 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage614d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $9 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $7 +$7 +101%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will John Stephens win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 12 $59 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $60 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 +$6 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +70%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $14 +$6 +46%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $51 $0 +1%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $96 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $13,523 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $9 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 9h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 28h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 29h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $22 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $11 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $11 8d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $7 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.90 · official $21.90 (match) · 264 history records