Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9878…c920 crypto 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,683 (+14%) realized +$1,677 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%77W / 42L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$459
14 days+$820
30 days+$858
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$1,020
other 6% +$196
politics 6% −$175
sports 1% +$28
weather 1% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +10.2% -0.3% 59% 56% +4.3%
≤30d 115 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 55% -2.7%
≤90d 115 +7.2% -3.0% 64% 55% -2.7%
all 119 +8.2% -2.1% 65% 55% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 55% -1.1%
10% -11.5% 42% -10.5%
15% -20.1% 28% -19.2%
20% -27.9% 18% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$43 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$1,677
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses77 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)119 / 121
History coverage167d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $52 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$27 +52%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$24 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $344 +$162 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $206 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $130 −$30 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$46 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$78 +150%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$35 -43%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$36 -18%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $83 +$19 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$45 +88%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$48 -79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 11 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $350 +$160 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $335 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$21 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $157 +$40 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$16 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $154 +$44 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $287 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $77 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$13 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $154 +$47 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $104 +$74 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $76 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $104 +$89 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $72 −$69 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 08 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $26 +$7 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $51 +$41 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6AM ET Jun 07 $76 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $26 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5AM ET Jun 07 $44 −$41 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? SELL Down 80¢ $85 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 47¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 90¢ $78 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 57¢ $52 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $505 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $344 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $199 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $155 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $99 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $146 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $130 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.13 · official $206.24 (match) · 406 history records