Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x987b…3d00 sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,608 (-3%) realized −$2,576 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%174W / 197L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1,027est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$227
7 days−$20,997
14 days−$18,481
30 days−$11,973
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,524
other 2% −$1,169
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -67.5% -70.6% 15% 14% -73.3%
≤30d 194 -30.4% -37.0% 38% 35% -29.3%
≤90d 367 -14.5% -22.7% 47% 43% -13.8%
all 371 -13.6% -21.8% 47% 44% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 44% -13.4%
10% -29.3% 42% -21.7%
15% -36.1% 35% -29.3%
20% -42.4% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$163 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$2,576
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses174 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,027
Open positions3
Markets (closed)371 / 374
History coverage93d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 38¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$10 +477%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$41 -40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $910 +$289 +32%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 14 $121 −$11 -9%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $1,031 −$556 -54%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Joventut vs. Saski Baskonia: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 166.5 Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-5.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-4.5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 174.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 25h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 55¢ $51 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-15.5) BUY PortlandFire 58¢ $51 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $60 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 98¢ $100 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $61 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 92¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 12¢ $15 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 86¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 85¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 81¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 84¢ $10 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 39¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 SELL Over 5¢ $7 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 51¢ $281 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.02 · official $88.02 (match) · 1122 history records