Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x9883…859a other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$282 (+22%) realized +$285 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$274
sports 29% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 60% +1.5%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 60% +1.5%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 60% +1.5%
all 5 -0.4% -9.9% 60% 60% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 60% +1.5%
10% -18.5% 40% -8.3%
15% -26.4% 40% -17.1%
20% -33.6% 40% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$78 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $371 −$126 -34%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $408 +$50 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $258 +$142 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $178 +$115 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Qatar 2¢ $2 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Qatar 4¢ $3 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $102 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 59¢ $58 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 68¢ $68 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 63¢ $84 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 74¢ $101 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) SELL Canada 69¢ $98 1h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 70¢ $101 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 92¢ $388 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $20 30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $194 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $292 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.40 · official $47.40 (match) · 23 history records