Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9888…05a8 crypto 561 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+4%) realized +$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate80%450W / 111L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day176.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 561 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -7.2%
≤30d 561 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -7.2%
≤90d 561 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -7.2%
all 561 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 72% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover176.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 72% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 35% -16.1%
15% -27.1% 7% -24.2%
20% -34.2% 2% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses450 / 111
Open positions0
Markets (closed)561 / 561
History coverage6d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day176.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 561 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$9 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1429 history records