Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x988a…d8b1 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$6
other 12% $0
politics 7% +$1
weather 4% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 44% 0% -8.5%
all 31 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -8.8%
10% -23.0% 0% -17.5%
15% -30.5% 0% -25.5%
20% -37.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage471d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $70 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $42 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $39 +$4 +9%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $40 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $82 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in March 2025? Mar 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.5% and 46.9% on March 28? Mar 28 $14 $0 +2%
Will XRP dip to $1.70 in March? Mar 28 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 27 $13 $0 +1%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $0 $0 -100%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $44 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $42 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 29h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $27 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $48 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $26 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $15 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $42 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $39 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $22 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $10 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.46 · official $44.46 (match) · 98 history records