Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x988c…7a05 crypto 505 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$218 (+1%) realized +$218 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate65%327W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 50% -9.7%
≤90d 505 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 64% -12.8%
all 505 -2.9% -12.2% 65% 64% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 64% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 63% -21.2%
15% -28.2% 51% -28.8%
20% -35.3% 21% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$218
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses327 / 178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)505 / 505
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 505 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $67 +$29 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $25 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $297 +$137 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $95 +$48 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $47 −$46 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $85 +$35 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 29 $18 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 30 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 30 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 17 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $18 −$9 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 12 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 12 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 11 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 30 $13 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 30 $742 −$742 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 30 $98 +$50 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 30 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 30 $486 +$177 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 22 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 22 $19 +$9 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 18 $40 +$16 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 18 $10 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 18 $39 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 18 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 18 $24 +$18 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 18 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 18 $14 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 18 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 18 $4 +$4 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $62 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $14 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $19 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $169 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $95 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records