Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x9890…7a11 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$75 · open −$64
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$69
14 days+$11
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$7
crypto 5% −$25
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -22.8% -30.1% 50% 50% +30.7%
≤30d 9 -22.7% -30.0% 22% 22% -5.5%
≤90d 9 -22.7% -30.0% 22% 22% -5.5%
all 9 -22.7% -30.0% 22% 22% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 22% -5.5%
10% -36.7% 22% -14.6%
15% -42.8% 22% -22.8%
20% -48.4% 22% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$16 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage20d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 42¢ $300 $236 −$64 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $144 +$79 +54%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$45 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $144 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $58 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 16d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 16d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 16d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.11 · official $269.44 · 14 history records