Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x9893…f18e world 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$18 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% +$12
other 8% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 15 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 7% -7.2%
≤90d 15 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 7% -7.2%
all 24 +1.8% -7.9% 54% 4% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 4% -7.3%
10% -16.7% 4% -16.1%
15% -24.8% 0% -24.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.57 per $1 lost it wins $6.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage464d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $59 $56 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $42 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $58 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $52 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $60 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $53 +$16 +30%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $8 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $59 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $37 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.07 · official $56.07 (match) · 90 history records