Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x9896…c430 sports 311 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,394 (-10%) realized −$2,369 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%151W / 156L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$242est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$592
14 days−$2,150
30 days−$1,823
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$3,231
other 6% +$105
world 4% +$559
politics 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.5% -24.4% 43% 40% -26.5%
≤30d 74 -23.5% -30.8% 41% 39% -33.3%
≤90d 307 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 49% -19.1%
all 307 -6.1% -15.0% 49% 49% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 49% -19.1%
10% -23.1% 48% -26.9%
15% -30.6% 44% -33.9%
20% -37.4% 41% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$69 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$2,369
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses151 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$242
Open positions2
Markets (closed)307 / 311
History coverage87d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $70 $103 +$33 (+48%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 30¢ 16¢ $120 $62 −$58 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $57 +$43 +75%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $119 −$119 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$43 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $641 −$54 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $169 −$169 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $73 −$56 -76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $77 +$23 +30%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $109 −$61 -55%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$31 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $146 +$54 +37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $8 $0 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $273 +$62 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $203 −$104 -51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $100 +$160 +160%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $50 +$56 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $104 +$75 +72%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $100 +$29 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $89 −$89 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) Jun 06 $174 −$174 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $695 −$695 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $91 −$91 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $39 +$35 +90%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $71 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $35 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $119 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $79 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $54 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $76 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $49 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $169 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $109 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 14¢ $30 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 47¢ $51 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $54 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.12 · official $166.49 (match) · 1374 history records